Why 2023 could spell the end of the Erdogan era

Turkey, this modern state that Mustafa Kemal Atatürk created on the remains of the Ottoman Empire, will be 100 years old in 2023. The atmosphere will be far from festive. In 2010, the authoritarian president of the country, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, pledged to increase the GDP to 2,000 billion dollars and to make Turkey one of the ten largest economies in the world by 2023.

In fact, undermined by 80% inflation and a weak currency, two phenomena largely due to the policies of Erdogan himself, the country is skating in 19th place in the world. GDP has shrunk from $957 billion in 2013 to $815 billion in 2021.

Corruption and institutional integrity

The economy and worries about corruption and institutional integrity could precipitate Erdogan’s downfall. Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for June. The opposition has yet to name its presidential candidate, but polls show Erdogan would lose to any potential contender.

His Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its partner, the Nationalist Movement Party, risk being crushed by an opposition alliance. The political obituary of the current president has certainly been written several times, but this time even his allies admit that it will be his most difficult election. And there are fears that Erdogan will resort to extreme measures to avoid defeat.

In search of a war

Deprived of a strong currency, Turkey is trying to attract investment from Russia, the United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia. It has implemented recovery measures. Erdogan could also try to strengthen his position by engaging in a confrontation, either with the Kurds in Syria or with the old enemy Greece over airspace and maritime rights. As Greece is also on the eve of elections, the risk of escalation is real.

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Yet even a war could not save the president. There is a good chance that by October, the date of the official celebrations, the Erdogan era will be over. Be careful, however, not to underestimate the will or the ability of the man to remain at the head of Turkey.

Piotr Zalewski, Turkey correspondent, The Economist