United States: the Republican Party implodes, the Democrats feast

Popcorn and alcohol

“Chaos”, “debacle”, “clowns”, “scandalous”… The names of birds have rocketed, but they struggle to describe the reality: the implosion of one of the two major American parties. The event was hardly a surprise: Ever since the GOP’s narrow victory in the Nov. 6 midterm elections, Republicans, with a majority of just 5 seats out of 435, knew they were at the mercy of the government. extreme wing of the party.

She had announced that she did not want Kevin McCarthy, considered too conciliatory in the face of the Democrats, like Speaker. She followed through on her threats. Three unsuccessful rounds of voting Tuesday, January 3, with twenty opponents of McCarthy, three other similar rounds of voting on Wednesday, January 4… And this Thursday, in the seventh round of voting, still no white smoke. A public humiliation, in front of millions of incredulous Americans.

Opposite, the Democrats openly rejoice. Which redoubles the fury of the Republicans. Kat Cammack, an elected official from Florida, went so far as to accuse Joe Biden’s party of coming to the show, in the hemicycle, like at the fair: “They want to see us divided. They want us to fight each other, as the popcorn, blankets and booze circulating have shown.” Response from Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the star of the Democratic left: “If only it was true ! If the Democrats drank every time McCarthy lost a Republican vote, we would all be knocked unconscious by now.”

“Anarchy or chaos?”

How did we get there? And what will be the consequences? With regard to the first question, the McCarthy camp blames this berezina on a handful of crazy extremists, who, each time their candidate made concessions, displayed new demands.

“I don’t know if it’s anarchy or chaos”exclaimed on CNN Mick Mulvaney, former chief of staff to Donald Trump and ally of McCarthy. The right at the mercy of a square of nihilists? The same Mulvaney, in 2013, was a founding member of the Freedom Caucus, this parliamentary group to the right of the right of the GOP which, already, had had the skin of a Speaker (John Boehner) deemed too moderate. But beware, Mulvaney tried to qualify: at the time, we were “the reasonable far-right wing of the party” !

These contortions highlight a reality that goes far beyond a squad of crazy parliamentarians: the Republican Party began a slow drift towards the far right in the 1990s, which accelerated under Obama and then led to its seizure of the party in favor of the Trump presidency.

The ex-president himself cajoled the extreme right of the party, even the neo-Nazi movement, but even he no longer has control of the most excited elements – as proof, the way the refractory ignored on Tuesday January 4, his call to rally behind McCarthy.

Even Trump no longer holds the far right

But the party’s crisis is even more serious than that: for years, even before Trump’s election, the “normal” elements of the party have multiplied concessions to the far right, overrepresented among Republican activists voting in the primaries designating the election candidates.

However, this extreme right, anti-system in essence, is never satisfied with these concessions. She always wants more – she actually wants chaos, as the assault on the Capitol showed exactly two years ago. It is on this reality that Kevin McCarthy shattered: his incessant gifts to the far right were perceived by the latter not as gestures of goodwill, but as a sign of vulnerability.

Read alsoChaos on Capitol Hill: The last gasp of the Trump cult

What does this mean for the two years that separate the country from the presidential election of November 2024? A series of very bad news, for the Republicans. One, they are now firmly identified, in public opinion, as a party taken hostage by its extreme fringe. More than ever, the multiple commissions of inquiry promised by the GOP, on Hunter Biden and other subjects likely to put the Democrats in difficulty, will appear as a purely partisan exercise.

Two: deeply divided ideologically, they will have all the trouble in the world to present the country with a credible political project in 2024.

Three, Donald Trump comes out weakened from this episode, he who clearly supported McCarthy’s candidacy. Four, and this is the most serious for the American right: faced with united Democrats, by necessity but also by skill, the GOP will not be able to claim to play on equal terms if it is de facto split into two camps.

This time, really, the Democrats can break out popcorn and cans of beer: the Great Old Circus is just beginning.