Lula won the Battle of Brasilia, but the country remains unstable

If the government of Brazil’s new president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, thought his inauguration on January 1 would put an end to protests by supporters of Jair Bolsonaro, whom he replaced, the events of January 8 showed that it acted out of wishful thinking. Thousands of Bolsonarians stormed the modernist buildings of Congress and the Supreme Court, as well as the presidential palace, smashing windows and damaging furniture.

The army did not move

Many insurgents had been camped in front of the federal army headquarters since October, in order to beg them to organize a coup after the defeat of their champion. The bolsonarists have decided this time to take matters directly into their own hands. Even though the invaded buildings were mostly empty, the operation bears striking similarities to the January 6, 2021 storming of the Capitol by supporters of Donald Trump. But if the riots in Washington revealed shortcomings in intelligence and police coordination, the attitude of the latter in Brazil is more worrying.

The disturbing inaction of the police

No evidence of complicity of the police has yet been provided. But they have been, at the very least, passive. A group of officers were seen chatting with protesters, taking selfies and filming the chaos rather than taking action to stop it. Requests for reinforcements from the Senate police chief to the governor of the Federal District of Brasilia, a close associate of Bolsonaro, were ignored for hours.

foreseeable event

Since January 6, 2021, when many Jair Bolsonaro supporters cheered on the insurgents in Washington, a loud chorus of Brazilian pundits, politicians and senior officials have warned of the possibility that radical bolsonarists might attempt something similar to Brazil. “The whole world knew this could happen,” said Renato Sérgio de Lima, from the Brazilian Public Security Forum. On the day of Lula’s investiture, The Economist visited the bolsonarist camp and saw one of its leaders exchanging disturbing messages via WhatsApp. The days preceding the assault, the Bolsonarists also openly called for demonstrations in the capital. It is unlikely that the police were unaware. Lula called the protesters “fascists” and “vandals” and claimed Bolsonaro had “incited” them.

Indispensable future reforms

From Florida, the ex-president has still not recognized his defeat and has limited himself to condemning the “methods” of his supporters. Lula has vowed to prosecute protesters and anyone involved. It will also be necessary to prevent future attempts by Bolsonarists to sow chaos. The federal government is given broad powers to investigate and fire any officer who is shown to have violated his duties because of his political beliefs. Media coverage of the case will divert attention as other pressing issues arise, such as a series of much-needed economic reforms. After years of turmoil, Brazilians are desperate for stability. They will have to wait a bit.