Iran: Tehran continues its “bunkerization” despite protests

Nothing seems off-limits in Iran anymore, even as the face of the protests has changed. No more demonstrations in cities, a place for civil disobedience, often personal.

“Irrevocable Divorce With the Population”

“From now on, the important thing is not the number of people on the streets, but the weight of the images on social networks, analyzes Jonathan Piron, Iran expert at the Etopia research center in Brussels. The aim is to show the power and motivation of the protesters to the world.” hasn’t disappeared.”

To hear a French diplomat put it, “This internal crisis is not an epiphany, it will last. There is an irreversible divorce with the population”. However, the insurgency movement sparked by the death of student Mahsa Amini on September 16, 2022, under a crackdown by the morality police for an ill-fitting veil in Tehran, has never really threatened the regime.

The government harshly repressed the protesters, multiplying arrests and sentencing many to death, though not using all of its coercive apparatus. He played on fear, but also on economic and social weaponry. Going on strike or demonstrating in the Islamic Republic is expensive.

“The Social Security system depends on the goodwill of officials, who can cut off supplies if you cross red lines, explains Jonathan Piron. Striking businesses, thus threatened with bankruptcy.” Result: The protesters failed to broaden the base of the protest.

“No Leverage on Iran”

Protested, the regime closes ranks. With President Ibrahim Raisi in office since the summer of 2021, we are witnessing a homogenization of power in Tehran. Ultra-Orthodox, Revolutionary Guards and clerics share the same vision that the Islamic Republic must be governed and protected with an iron fist and a return to the revolution’s ideological core principles.

Iran is 35.5 billion dollars of GDP in 2022 4 thousand dollars of GDP per year according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The government got relief. But what will he do with it? Open up a little or continue your “bunkerization”? Already on the horizon are the March 2024 legislative elections. Moderates and reformers are re-emerging, such as Ibrahim Raisi’s predecessor Hassan Rouhani, who is leading the election campaign by attending meetings across the country.

According to Franco-Iranian business lawyer Ardavan Amir-Aslani, “The Iranian-Saudi generalization, which was received like a slap in the face by Iranian youth, is seen as a breath of fresh air for the regime.” Enemy Iran has resigned itself to recognizing that power in Tehran was a permanent part of the regional landscape.”

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In short, the Islamic Republic is needed in the Middle East more than ever. Its strategic alliance with Russia in the war in Ukraine and its continuation of its nuclear program outside the 2015 accord are benefiting the West more than ever. “The problem is that nobody has authority over Iran,” admits a French diplomat. Like an admission of helplessness.

by Christian Chesnot