How South Korea plans to become a global military power

Extreme tension. On Monday, December 26, the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff announced that it had “detected a North Korean unmanned aerial vehicle” and then “responded immediately” with warning shots and a deployment of fighter jets and combat helicopters. A military incident that adds to a long list with the North Korean neighbor. It only reinforces the firm will of South Korea – little known in Europe – to become, by forced march, a new military power.

Last September, at an Arms Fair in Poncheon, near the North Korean border, Seoul flexed its muscles with its K-9 self-propelled howitzers, which fired with a deafening din. The flagships of South Korean armaments were gathered to detail their know-how in defense equipment to potential buyers. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has set his goal for the summer: “South Korea will be the world’s fourth largest arms exporter behind France, Russia and the United States.” A bet he could well win.

Historical contract

For South Korea, 2022 has been a banner year. The country exported $17 billion worth of weapons, notably to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. But it is the historic contract with Poland that weighs the most: nearly 15 billion dollars worth of equipment, from K-2 tanks to FA-50 fighters. Admittedly, the war in Ukraine has facilitated sales, especially with Warsaw, which wishes to rearm. But this development of the military industry comes a long way, launched almost fifteen years ago.

The explanation? The price of South Korean weapons, lower than the competition, with equivalent quality, even if it is not the main selling point. The country’s asset is first and foremost its production capacity. Every three to five days, a K-9 howitzer barrel comes out of the Hanwha factories in Changwon. An intense rhythm explaining why Poland turns to this country rather than the United States or Germany. Hyundai, which manufactures K-2 tanks, said it could deliver 180 models in three years.

Five times more than Germany at the same time. For its contract signed in July 2022, Poland saw its first delivery arrive in October. “This ability to quickly honor its contracts comes from the fact that Seoul draws on its stocks for export. The tanks delivered do not leave the factories, explains Kévin Martin, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. It remains to be seen whether Korea du Sud can keep pace over the long term and replenish its reserves.” In 2010, when the country exported its ammunition, its stocks only allowed it to last two weeks in the event of a conflict.

$600 million by 2027

Seoul does not intend to stop there. President Yoon has announced an investment of nearly $600 million in the arms sector by 2027. This will further strengthen its industrialists, especially Hanwha, which stands out from the rest. Specialist in artillery and electronics, with an already extensive catalog, this group has just bought the shipowner DSME for 1.4 billion dollars. And he intends to internationalize: “Hanwha is the first group to have a factory relocated to Australia, specifies Kévin Martin. Until then, the industry only produced in South Korea.”

In addition to equipment deliveries, the contracts signed with Seoul include technology transfers and the establishment of firms in partner countries. No doubt, the South Koreans are going to be an increasingly serious competitor for the Europeans. “In 2006, they planned to multiply their production by eight, by 2020. Few people believed in it, but they did it, recalls Kévin Martin Today, they have the capacity to reach their target.”

Faced with dangers at its doorstep, Japan wants to rearm

If you want peace, finance the war. This could be Japan’s motto after the announcement, on December 17 by its Prime Minister, of an exceptional increase in the country’s military spending. Invoking the “unprecedented strategic challenge” represented by China, Fumio Kishida outlined a new defense policy, more autonomous from its American ally. Over the next five years, the government will devote more than 300 billion euros to military spending to bring the annual defense budget to 8.9 trillion. That is a doubling in five years, from 1 to 2% of GDP. A historic turnaround. Since its defeat in 1945, Japan has officially embraced “state pacifism”, under the umbrella of the American army, with a contingent of 56,000 men. He maintains an army, but with the exclusive vocation of responding to an attack. Successive governments have thus adopted the rule of capping military spending at 1% of GDP.

By Célio Fioretti (in Seoul)