End of grain agreement in the Black Sea: “Putin raised the stakes”

The primary objective of the agreement was to ensure the export of grain, fertilizers and other foodstuffs from three Ukrainian ports: Odessa, Chornomorsk and Pivdeny. Recall that before the war, Ukraine produced 80 million tons of grain, of which more than 50 million tons were exported. Ukraine was in sixth place^th World wheat producer in 2020. In 2019, Ukraine was the second largest supplier of organic products to the European market with 324,000 tons.

Interview with Emmanuel Veron, teacher-researcher attached to the Naval School and INALCO, member of the French Institute for Research on East Asia. Doctor in geography and specialist in international relations.

Challenges. What is Vladimir Putin’s strategy in deciding not to increase his participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative?

Emmanuel Veron: Putin uses diplomacy to assert his power and thrust himself back into the center of negotiations, despite his meager means. The pressure that we saw in March when Russia signed up for only 60 days instead of 120. Putin is on the move. Catherine Colonna (Foreign Minister of Europe and France) Talks about blackmailing global food security. However, I think this pressure is temporary. Listen to Erdogan’s statement yesterday morning that he is sure that Vladimir Putin wants to go ahead with the deal.

The agreements were aimed at ensuring global food security. How does Vladimir Putin want to use this argument to his advantage?

In fact the main issue is food security. Ukraine is one of the world’s biggest agricultural exporters and a shutdown of exports could affect already vulnerable populations but also European countries, for example. Russia is very important for exporting fertilizers by sea, which is essential for agricultural giants like Brazil. Fertilizer is an essential resource for its agri-food industry, if only in cattle breeding, whose meat is exported across the planet. Negotiations between Brazil and Russia continued throughout the war.

There is also the Russian diplomatic will to influence Africa, and particularly the grain issue, which is a gateway to other discussions. Next week is the Russian-African summit. African countries may agree to allow Russia to maneuver freely in exchange for food resources, where European political influence is very weak. This Russian presence is already visible with Wagner positions in Mali, Libya, Madagascar, etc. We will see the rise of pro-Moscow regimes in Africa that will destabilize Western positions.

With the end of the grain agreement, which established a safe corridor in the Black Sea and provided for inspection of ships, can we expect an increase in attacks or arms smuggling?

Russian attacks on Ukrainian strategic points, sometimes industrial and food sectors, have always been repeated. Last night, Iranian Martyr drones and Kalibr missiles targeted Ukrainian territory. This corridor is no longer protected, so there is a risk to those who use it. But Russia no longer has the means it had 10 months ago. It can no longer manufacture weapons and equipment in the hundreds and is having difficulty obtaining modern weapons. We know that arms and equipment can be smuggled to Russia by sea as there are sanctions and sanctions against Russia.

Türkiye and the United Nations are also signatories to the initiative. How do these two actors adapt to the discussions and conversations that follow?

Turkey has mastered the Dardanelles Strait and the passage to the Bosphorus since the Montreux Convention in 1936. Erdogan has weight in negotiations and Turkey will always be able to maneuver. It is an emerging force of struggle. Turkish presidents since the Prigogine putsch know that Vladimir Putin’s power has weakened. He was re-elected two months ago, which confirms his strength. Turkey plays on several tables: NATO member, aid to Vladimir Putin, but also arms sales to Ukraine. This is a very realistic approach to the struggle. Erdogan is using the war as leverage to gain momentum. Turkey weighs more than the weight of the European Union.

In the midst of the attack on the Kerch Bridge, the end of agreements and the military strikes last night, the UN has placed this file among its priorities. I think it may take a few days or maybe a few weeks for the diplomatic activities to end with the new agreement.