Chinese growth: a leader with (too) great ambitions?

The coming year is the subject of short-term predictions. The Chinese, on the other hand, have a longer term vision. They make statements about the trajectory of their country decades in advance. In 1978, then-leader Deng Xiaoping declared that China would strive to quadruple its GDP per person in the last twenty years of the 20th century.e century, before multiplying it again by four during the first thirty to fifty years of the XXIe century.

In November 2020, Xi Jinping said that it was “quite possible” for China to double its GDP between 2020 and 2035. If confirmed, then China could overtake the United States and become the world’s largest economy. world somewhere in the middle of the next decade. This prospect worries many Americans. These projections are also reckless because they could turn out to be totally wrong – even when made by powerful leaders in a position to influence the course of events.


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