After Brexit, how to reinvent relations between London and Brussels

Ten years ago this month, David Cameron, then Prime Minister, launched the Brexit process. Since then, the exit from the European Union has exacerbated the economic malaise in the United Kingdom, halted its trade and dried up investment. The move further soured Britain’s relationship with many of its natural allies.

Today, while a majority of Britons say they regret leaving the Union, a path is emerging towards improved relations with Europe. It is in the interest of both parties. But it will be a long process that will involve restoring confidence. London must first normalize its relations with Brussels.

Northern Irish Protocol

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has already scored points on this plan: peaceful cooperation has been initiated on a series of subjects, from wind projects in the North Sea to the question of migration. But these advances will not weigh very heavily if he does not succeed in negotiating a satisfactory agreement on the Northern Irish protocol. Achieving this would then pave the way for other benefits, including British participation in science projects.

In a speech to the press on Monday January 27, the boss of the CBI (Confederation of British Industry), the largest British employers’ union, its director Tony Danker also criticized the British government’s plan to abandon by December 31, 2023 any legislation inherited from the EU which would not have been explicitly maintained in national law after Brexit.

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Review of the Trade and Cooperation Agreement

Then you have to build. The half-baked Trade and Cooperation Agreement negotiated by Boris Johnson will be reviewed in 2026. This will be a unique opportunity to beef it up. The Labor Party, which could well exercise power at that time, proposed to add several agreements facilitating in particular the movement of food products and certain categories of people.

The second half of the current decade should be devoted to reinventing the UK/EU relationship. The British government would be well advised to take up the proposals outlined by Theresa May the day after the exit referendum: strengthening access to the single market in sectors such as manufactured goods and agriculture in exchange for the adoption of the regulatory framework of the ‘Union.

The process will be difficult on both sides. The British will have to abandon their dogmatic aversion to European law; the Twenty-Seven, to temper their aversion to the idea of ​​a United Kingdom choosing this or that aspect of the single market. Reintegrating the country into the Community framework on chemicals, agriculture and public aid would be a plus for a Union that aspires to become a regulatory superpower.

“There are real opportunities for the UK to regulate markets smarter than the EU”, but this project “risks throwing the industry into chaos just when we try to come out of recession” at the end of 2023, positioned Tony Dunker yesterday.

A lot of work and realism

A tailor-made relationship with the United Kingdom would also participate in the reinvention of European architecture. Over the next ten years, the Union will have to reflect on how to manage the aspirations of Ukraine and of the Balkan countries wishing to join it. Old debates on the variable-geometry Union and the two-speed Europe will resurface.

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Forging a lasting relationship between London and the European Union will take time and require hard work and realism, but will leave room for imagination.