Why Ukraine has not yet been admitted to NATO

A full-scale war has been going on in Ukraine for over five hundred days. And the West, of course, believes in Ukraine’s victory, if only because it has bet on Ukraine. It is obvious that if Ukraine suddenly loses, the West will lose too. Thus, in fact, a broad confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation is taking place on the territory of Ukraine.

But the question is what exactly the West will consider a “victory for Ukraine.” There may be differences, and the longer the war lasts, the stronger the differences may be, but for now – at least in words! – The West accepts the peace formula proposed by President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Next question. Regardless of when and how the war ends, Ukraine has already become part of NATO’s security system. It has NATO weapons, its troops are trained in accordance with NATO standards, it coordinates military policy with NATO. Jens Stoltenberg, NATO secretary general, says Ukraine’s path to NATO will be short, one-stage, not two-stage – but is the Alliance ready to go fast?

One gets the impression that the West does not actually see Ukraine as part of NATO. As a close partner with broad capabilities, as a member of the Ukraine-NATO special mission (remember there was a Russia-NATO entity?), Yes, but not as a full member.

Why? The Russian Federation will lose the war and be rebuilt. Empires, if they don’t fall apart, are always rebuilt. From the point of view of the West, it is absolutely impossible to allow the disintegration of the Russian Federation: the risk of an uncontrolled threat to world security, including the nuclear threat, will increase many times over.

When (and if) the empire of the Russian Federation is restored, imperial ambitions will again dominate it, chauvinism and theories of superiority will flourish. There is no doubt: in a direct combat clash, both the present Russian Federation and the rebuilt Russian Federation will definitely lose to NATO. But the West does not want a military clash at all.

And then Ukraine will reappear on the scene – yes, an ally, yes, armed by NATO standards, but not a full member of NATO. With a Ukrainian buffer, NATO will be able to flourish and develop without fear of direct attack.

(In parentheses, Finland got into NATO so quickly because it has its own large and well-trained army, that is, it can also serve as a buffer itself. But if it wasn’t for Ukraine, Finland wouldn’t be in NATO.)

This is the crux of the matter: NATO needs a country that will be an obvious and powerful deterrent to the Russian Federation.

Now about the mood in the West. There are such messages that the West is fed up with Ukraine. The polls, of course, do not confirm this, but such political talks are taking place and their importance should not be underestimated. But can they interfere with the supply of arms and other forms of support to Ukraine?

Answer: No, they can’t. The arms deliveries are in no way related to the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. These are huge financial and industrial flows, jobs and long-term plans. In the news, we see only the tip of the iceberg, and if we look deeper, we can see how great is the military and technical assistance that is now flowing uninterruptedly to Ukraine. Two or three times a month, the country gets small packages of aid – well, how small: $ 300 million, $ 500 million each, and about once a month – a large package, and that’s billions of dollars.

We return to the beginning of the text: The West has placed a bet.

Moreover, these supplies and support for Ukraine are an important factor in the political life of Europe and the entire West. The commitment to ensuring Ukraine’s victory remains a very winning political factor. As they say, victory has many parents, but failure is always an orphan.

And besides, no one can say how long the Ukrainian counter-offensive will last, how much and what else may be needed to win.

It is scary to think what a blow the failure of the Ukrainian counter-offensive will be for Western politicians. Then they will have to deal directly with the Russian Federation and its leadership, whose brakes have long failed.

We follow what is happening in Vilnius. Much will be decided in these three days.

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