The Russian budget deficit reached almost 4 trillion rubles in December

preliminary data on the execution of the budget show that the deficit could be even larger than expected by the Ministry of Finance. Minister Anton Siluanov said in December that by the end of the year the deficit would be 2% of GDP, or 2.9 trillion rubles. instead of the 0.9% of GDP provided for by the budget law. But as of January 1, budget revenues amounted to 27.765 trillion rubles, and expenditures – 31.111 trillion. Thus, the deficit is still estimated at 3.345 trillion rub. It turns out that, taking into account accumulated for 11 months of surplus of 557 billion rubles. December deficit could reach a record 3.9 trillion rub.

If the operational data are correct, then at the end of the year the budget deficit amounted to 2.3% of GDP, counted analysts of “Hard Numbers”, and the budget would be balanced at an oil price of $102 per barrel (on average per year).

The next year’s deficit is planned to be the same as (it was supposed) this year: 2.9 trillion rubles, or 2% of GDP. It was supposed to cover it mainly with loans and at the expense of the National Welfare Fund. But the year is off to a bad start: the price of Russian Urals oil is almost twice below budgeted. It was drawn up based on an average of $70.1 per barrel (and the ruble exchange rate was 68.3 rubles/$), and in early January sold for $37.8. In December, the average price of Urals amounted to $50.47, reported the Ministry of Finance.

The government is already looking for additional sources of income: increased dividends and a one-time payment to the treasury from exporters.

“At around $60, there is no catastrophe for the budget: it remains in deficit, but this is not the situation in which everything starts to fall apart. If the price drops below 40, this is a situation of acute fiscal disaster.” spoke professor at the University of California at Los Angeles Oleg Itskhoki.


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