The ruble tends to rise due to oil with low stock market activity

MOSCOW, March 30 (Reuters) – The ruble showed marginal gains in Thursday afternoon trading, helped by renewed gains in oil prices, offsetting the negative impact of a seasonal decline in after-tax export sales and lingering geopolitical risks.

At the same time, market activity and liquidity fell in the last days of the calendar month, however the factor of ending the first quarter hides the risk of volatility spikes today or tomorrow.

Tomorrow at 12:50 Moscow time, the dollar/ruble pair was close to 77.02 and the ruble gained around 0.2%.

The euro/ruble exchange rate was 83.70, and here the ruble is gaining 0.1%, during the morning session it reached the lowest value since April 20 last year, 83.90.

Combined with the yuan, the ruble is now valued at 11.17, a quarter percent increase in price.

The oil market resumed its gains after a final drop the day before, supported by optimism about global demand as financial markets improved after measures taken to prevent a new crisis.

The price of a barrel of Brent is up three quarters of a percent and is estimated at 78.87, having reached a two-week high of $79.68 a day earlier.

Russian Urals export oil intended for deliveries to the north-western region of Europe is currently trading at $56.10 a barrel, while earlier last week it was trading near $45 a barrel for the first time since fall 2020. .

In the Forex market, the euro/dollar pair is currently up almost 0.2% and is estimated at USD 1.0862, the dollar index is trading at 102.49 against 102.61 at Wednesday’s close.

Global market participants assess the risk of a further interest rate hike by the Fed, taking into account the easing of tensions in the banking sector after the normalization measures taken and the buyout of problematic banks.

The growing confidence in the banking system has increased the chance that the Fed will be able to tighten policy again after the May 2-3 meeting in order to fight still high inflation in the US.

The futures market still estimates the likelihood of a 25bps rate hike in May at 40%, while late last week such a move was considered unlikely.

In this regard, Friday’s release of February’s key inflation indicators in the US will be important: the headline consumer price index and the dynamics of household income and spending.

Today at 15.30 Moscow time data on US GDP for Q4 and data on the number of jobless claims last week will be released, and the head of the US Treasury Janet Yellen is to speak late in the evening.

(Moscow office)