The ruble rose against the yuan due to interventions and FX dynamics, is stable against the dollar and the euro

MOSCOW, Jan 19 (Reuters) – The ruble was mixed on Thursday, with much of the exchange trading marginally cheaper against the dollar and the euro, but rose against the Chinese currency, reflecting a wary attitude to risk in the FX market, as well as CBR FX interventions in a pair of yuan / ruble.

By 17.40 Moscow time, exchange quotes of the dollar/ruble pair were close to 68.80, and the ruble was losing 0.1%.

The euro/ruble pair was at 74.42, and here the ruble is depreciating by the same amount.

Paired with the yuan, the ruble is quoted in positive territory, rising in price by two-thirds of a percent, to the mark of 10.12.

“The current range for the USD/RUB pair is 68–69. Volatility in the foreign exchange market is decreasing again,” said Georgy Vashchenko from Freedom Finance Global.

From last Friday until February 6, the Russian Central Bank has been selling foreign currency from reserves for rubles on the Moscow Exchange as part of the budget rule, and the yuan / ruble pair is used as an instrument with “tomorrow” settlements, for 3.2 billion rubles a day (almost $47 million in the equivalent ).

Since yesterday evening, foreign markets have been showing interest in the US dollar as a safe-haven currency to the detriment of risky assets, as well as lower commodity prices due to fears that the US economy is on the way to recession.

Market sentiment deteriorated after yesterday’s US macroeconomic publications, which reflected the strongest decline in more than twelve months of retail sales and industrial production decline at the highest rate in the last two years.

U.S. statistics today were mixed, with jobless claims falling more than expected last week, and the Philadelphia Fed’s business climate index not falling as low as analysts expected this month, but housing starts and building permits are down. .

Thus, a strong US labor market allows the Fed to take further steps to combat slowing inflation, however, the cooling of other segments of the economy indicates a negative effect from the significant tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy that has already occurred last year.

“In general, the published statistics so far continue to indicate a possible easing of the Fed’s position in the future. Nevertheless, such a scenario is already largely taken into account by the market, and weak economic statistics may now be perceived more negatively,” the Bank St. Petersburg review says.

The dollar against the euro is now quoted at $ 1.0820, cheaper by a quarter of a percent, but at the same time it shows growth against most commodity and developing currencies, against the yuan in the mainland Chinese market, it rises in price by half a percent (6.7770).

Basic grades of oil again returned to growth after falling in the first half of Thursday, a barrel of Brent is quoted near the $85.65 mark, and the day before it was at a maximum since December 5, $87.75.

The risk for the ruble and ruble assets remains the price ceiling for Russian oil set by the West and the upcoming restrictions on oil products from the Russian Federation, as well as the significant current Urals discount to base grades, which implies a weakening inflow of foreign exchange earnings to the Russian Federation.

Spot quotes for the Russian Urals reference oil blend for delivery to the northwestern regions of Europe are now at $52.36 per barrel, while at the close of Wednesday they were $53.91 per barrel . (Moscow Bureau)


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