The ruble on inactive Monday showed modest mixed dynamics

MOSCOW, May 22 (Reuters) – The ruble was modest and mixed on Monday amid low stock market activity but not giving up on attempts to rally, which may gradually rise in taxes over the course of the week.

The uncertainty in foreign markets due to the unresolved situation with the US government debt ceiling is irritating, as well as the military-political threats, given the current news.

At 17.30 Moscow time, the dollar/ruble was at 80.08 with “for tomorrow” calculations, and the ruble is down 0.1%. The volume of exchange transactions since the beginning of trading is less than USD 0.7 billion.

The exchange rate of the euro/ruble pair is close to 86.67, and here the ruble is losing value by 0.2%. The volume of transactions with this pair is less than a third of a billion euros.

In tandem with the yuan, the ruble is trading close to 11.37, gaining approx. 0.1% from the level from the previous stock market close.

In the morning the Russian currency rose to 79.76 to the dollar, 85.63 to the euro and 11.33 to the yuan. closing the safe positions taken over the weekend. “The ruble started the new week with a slight strengthening. We expect this trend to continue as we approach the peak of the tax season,” said Aleksey Antonov of Alor Broker.

“We believe the current range for the dollar/ruble for the current week is the 79.00-80.50 corridor. The ruble’s position could be slightly supported by the return of exporters to the market in anticipation of tax payments, agrees Yegor Zilnikov from Promsviazbank.

At the same time, he emphasizes that a strong contribution of this factor to the strengthening of the ruble should not be expected against the backdrop of an increase in the share of the Russian currency in foreign trade operations.

Export corporations repay the budget on Monday, May 29 – on this day, the Single Tax Payment will take place, which includes the minerals extraction tax, and exporters usually increase the sale of foreign exchange receipts by these advance payments.

According to Reuters calculations, April’s minerals extraction tax paid this month for crude oil rose by almost a quarter, or 3,927 rubles per ton, to 20,187 rubles compared to March.

Brent crude, meanwhile, traded slightly higher after losing more than one percent in the morning. Currently, a barrel is valued at USD 75.76 (+0.2%).

This is supported by the factor of reduced supplies from Canada against the background of local forest fires, as well as forecasts of a drop in oil exports by OPEC+ countries by the end of May, at the same time – the risk of bankruptcy in the United States due to the lack of progress in negotiations on the debt ceiling, as well as concerns about demand for fuel in the PRC after ambiguous Chinese statistics.

In the global FX market, the dollar slightly depreciates against the euro ($1.0810), but gains 0.4% against the yen (Y138.50), and shows a multi-directional dynamic against commodities/emerging currencies.

Forex traders are irked by the uncertainty surrounding the adoption of a new U.S. government debt limit following Friday’s abruptly halted talks, but there are hopes for progress during the meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy scheduled for today.

The dollar retreated from its multi-week highs after Fed governor Jerome Powell turned out to be more lenient in his rhetoric on Friday compared to the statements of regional Fed governors (still hawkish), which lowered expectations for a dollar rate hike at the June meeting of the US regulator. (Moscow office)


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