The ruble is trying to gain ground after the morning declines
MOSCOW, May 18 (Reuters) – The ruble is attempting to gain ground in Thursday’s main session as Russia’s May tax payments loom ahead, meaning export sales are picking up as well as pressure from local currency buyers is easing.
At the same time, falling oil prices and a rising dollar are negative for the ruble on the outer contour.
At 11.45 Moscow time, the dollar to ruble exchange rate was 79.92 tomorrow, and the ruble is down 0.1%, falling to 80.49 in the morning.
The exchange rate of the euro/ruble pair is 86.40 and here the ruble strengthens by 0.2%.
Combined with the yuan, the ruble gains half a percentage point to 11.34. This reflects the fairly significant current decline of the Chinese currency in the forex market.
“We believe that the dollar/ruble pair will trade in the range of 79.50-80.50 today due to the lack of significant factors influencing the formation of directional dynamics,” said Egor Zhilnikov of Promsvyazbank.
“In the coming days, the ruble may show multi-directional dynamics, but due to the likely strengthening of foreign currency sales next week, the ruble is likely to show a more pronounced strengthening,” Bank Saint Petersburg analysts believe.
On May 29, export corporations will pay key taxes, including on mining, for which they typically increase the sale of foreign exchange profits in advance.
According to Reuters calculations, April’s mining tax paid this month on crude oil rose by almost a quarter, or 3,927 rubles per ton, to 20,187 rubles compared to March.
Demand for the currency is currently formed mainly due to the restoration of Russian imports, as well as unstable flows for the purchase by local investors of Western enterprises leaving the Russian Federation.
The forex dollar is trading near seven-week highs, gaining 0.2% against the euro ($1.0819) and a basket of six key currencies (103.07), and rising against most emerging currencies.
Participants in the global currency market continue to monitor the situation regarding the US debt ceiling and generally hope that a US debt default can be prevented. In this case, the dollar may be supported by strengthening market expectations for another Fed rate hike instead of the previously assumed long pause.
Major crudes fall in pandan as the dollar strengthens, a barrel of Brent loses a third of a percent and is valued at $76.67.