The ruble is not gaining a foothold in the black due to the current momentum of the dollar and oil
MOSCOW, May 18 (Reuters) – The ruble showed positive momentum on Thursday as May tax payments approached and pressure from local currency buyers eased, but the current rise in the dollar and decline in oil in foreign markets prevent it from firmly entrenching its foothold in the black .
At 17.45 Moscow time, the dollar/ruble pair was at 80.12 tomorrow, with the ruble losing a third of a percent, while in the afternoon the price rose to a session high of 79.47.
The euro/ruble exchange rate is at 86.44, and here the ruble is gaining less than 0.2%, having previously risen to 85.93.
Combined with the yuan, the ruble gained a quarter of a percent to 11.37.
In the evening, the forex dollar reached its high since late March, USD 1.0769 against the euro and 103.51 against a basket of six key currencies. It is also rising against most emerging currencies.
Participants in the global currency market continue to monitor the situation regarding the US debt ceiling and generally hope that a US debt default can be prevented.
Until the evening, the dollar was supported by data on a weekly fall in the number of new jobless claims in the US, stronger than expected, which strengthened market expectations for another possible Fed rate hike instead of a long pause and subsequent easing of monetary policy at the end of the year.
Major crudes fall in pandan as the dollar strengthens, a barrel of Brent loses one percent and is valued at $76.18.
At the same time, participants of the local currency market are waiting for the situation of the ruble to improve by the end of the calendar month – on May 29, export corporations will pay taxes, including selling currency exchange profits.
According to Reuters calculations, April’s mining tax paid this month on crude oil rose by almost a quarter, or 3,927 rubles per ton, to 20,187 rubles compared to March.
“In the coming days, the ruble may show multi-directional dynamics, but due to the likely strengthening of foreign currency sales next week, the ruble is likely to show a more pronounced strengthening,” Bank Saint Petersburg analysts believe.
Demand for the currency is currently formed mainly due to the restoration of Russian imports, as well as unstable flows for the purchase by local investors of Western enterprises leaving the Russian Federation.
Since last Wednesday, exporters have reduced activity in the local FX market after selling foreign currency in the first decade of May to pay out dividends, while FX demand has been rising in parallel, which led to the weakening of the ruble the day before to the lows of this month, but as a result, the Russian currency ended yesterday’s stock market trading up.
In recent days, the ruble has also been undermined by the psychological effect of last week’s weak Russian macroeconomic indicators, which reflected a narrowing current account surplus and an increase in the federal budget deficit.