The ruble is in the red without active exports and in the presence of local purchases of the currency

MOSCOW, Jan 26 (Reuters) – The ruble depreciated on Thursday, which market participants attributed to demand for local foreign currency that was down in volume but in the absence of a large sale of export earnings and the current low exchange rate. Worth noting in business.

By 11.20 Moscow time, exchange quotes of the dollar / ruble pair with “yesterday’s” settlements were close to the level of the previous close, 69.31 points, and the first ruble fell to 69.73.

The euro/ruble pair was at 75.63, with the ruble falling by 0.3%.

Paired with the yuan, the ruble fell by 0.6% to 10.27.

A dealer of a large Russian bank suggested that the current negative dynamics of the ruble is evidenced by the consequences of Norilsk Nickel’s early repayment of a $ 500 million loan from UniCredit in December last year, as Russian publications reported a few days ago. Was. And now the steel company can buy foreign currency in the exchange market.

“Norilsk Nickel could turn to dollar revenue declines and, for example, borrow in rubles and yuan to pay off dollar debt, ‘convert debt’, and also buys in the spot market,” he said.

Formally, the factor of yesterday’s repayment by the Ministry of Finance of OFZ-26211 for 150 billion rubles also plays against the ruble – friendly investors can use part of the ruble funds received to buy foreign currency.

At the same time, from January 13 to February 6, the Russian Central Bank sells Chinese yuan for 3.2 billion rubles per day (equivalent to $46 million) from “yesterday’s” settlements reserves within the framework of the budget rule, and Due to the New Year holidays in China, the amount of these works done from January 20 to January 27 will be reflected in the accumulated total at the beginning of next week.

According to Finam analysts, the Central Bank’s interventions have exhausted their influence on the ruble exchange rate and currency quotes have entered a slight upward trend.

He believes, “This week, most likely, an attempt to develop a local growth trend (dollar/ruble pair), it is possible to test the level of 69.50-70.00.”

However, there is a possibility of short-term growth in the ruble, since the procedure for paying taxes has changed since the new year.

Commodity corporations (along with other taxpayers) now make a single tax payment for almost all taxes, duties and insurance premiums on the 28th of each calendar month.

This month, due to the weekend, the payment deadline has been postponed to January 30, and exporters may look forward to this date, especially when nominal exchange rate appreciation plays into their hands.

According to Reuters calculations, the December MET for oil paid in the current month could be around 0.41 trillion rubles against the previous value of 0.48 trillion.

The factor of pressure on the ruble is the Western price limit for Russian oil and the upcoming sanctions on oil products from the Russian Federation, as well as Brent <बीएफओ-यूआरएल-एनडब्ल्यूई> Important for is the current Ural discount, which leads to material reduction of foreign exchange earnings in the country.

Spot quotations of Russian reference oil blend Ural for delivery to the northwestern regions of Europe by the end of tomorrow’s session at $53.33 a barrel Were on

The current front futures quote for Brent, a North Sea oil blend, is $86.22, a slight increase from Wednesday’s previous prices.

At the forex, the dollar showed minimal change ($1.0917) against the euro, valued at 101.62 versus 101.54 at the previous close, against a basket of six major currencies that hit multi-month lows in anticipation of a rate slowdown Is. Also a possible upside regulator towards hikes by the Fed and policy easing in the second half of this year.

The focus is on massive blocks of American data. (Moscow Bureau)

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