The ruble is getting cheaper, but it is waiting for an increase in sales of export profits to EPP
MOSCOW, May 23 (Reuters) – The ruble tumbled lower on Tuesday morning but could try to move higher again in the main stock exchange and in subsequent sessions as it awaits an increase in the sale of foreign exchange proceeds from exports under the so-called the already inevitable Single Tax Payment.
Real flows for the purchase of foreign currency are against – both from Russian importers and local investors buying the business of Western companies leaving the Russian Federation.
At the same time, the negative impact of unstable purchases of foreign currency during the change of ownership may decrease after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a monthly limit of such transactions at the level of USD 1 billion.
Uncertainty in foreign markets due to the unresolved situation with the US government debt ceiling and military-political risks, given the current news, also remain a factor of pressure.
At 9.30 Moscow time, the dollar to ruble exchange rate was 80.35 tomorrow, and the ruble was losing a quarter of a percent.
The exchange rate of the euro/ruble pair is close to 86.83 and here, too, the ruble loses a quarter of a percent.
In combination with the yuan, the ruble shows a similar trend, the quote is close to 11.40.
Single tax payment in the Russian Federation will take place on May 29, a
According to Reuters’ calculations, April’s MET for crude oil rose by almost a quarter compared to March, or 3,927 rubles a tonne, to 20,187 rubles.
The EPL factor supported the ruble the day before, but a set of negative factors prevailed and by the end of Monday the Russian currency lost 0.2% in pairs with the dollar (80.15) and the euro (86.69), but no change against the yuan (11 .37).
In foreign markets on Tuesday morning, crude oil prices rose in anticipation of both an increase in demand for fuel in the upcoming holiday period and the effect of reduced OPEC+ supplies.
North Sea Brent is now up a third of a percent and is valued at $76.25.
A more substantial increase is limited by the risk of a US default in the event of no progress in debt ceiling negotiations, in particular on the eve of US President Joe Biden and Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy failing to reach an agreement on the issue.
The same factor keeps other segments of the global market in suspense while driving demand for safe assets.
In the forex market, the dollar is slightly more expensive against the euro ($1.0802) and the yen ($138.65) and is slightly up against some commodities and emerging currencies, being in demand as a safe haven and receiving support from the continued hawkish comments by the heads of regional Fed banks. In particular, in recent speeches by Minneapolis Fed Chairman Neil Kashkari and St. Louis, James Bullard, allowed the dollar to rise further this year.
Now, the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in June is estimated at 20%.
Today, the world’s markets will focus on flash data on economic activity in the world’s largest economies in May. (Moscow office)