The ruble has fallen under sell facts and is losing more than 1.5% since the beginning of Friday, but will grow in a week

MOSCOW, Jan 13 (Reuters) – The ruble turned sharply negative by Friday evening, and it could be pressured by profit-taking after a significant strengthening of the Russian currency in the final week, a decrease in export activity under its curtain, as well as the closing of long ruble positions in favor of risk-free before the weekend, which in the US will be three days.

At the same time, the recovery of the dollar in Forex from multi-month lows is reflected in the ruble cross-rates.

By 17.10 Moscow time, the exchange quotes of the dollar / ruble pair with “tomorrow” settlements were close to 68.83, and the ruble is losing 1.6%.

The euro/ruble pair was at 74.22, here the ruble is losing 1.5%.

Paired with the yuan, the ruble falls by 1.9%, quotes are close to 10.21.

Earlier today, the ruble reached the best value against the dollar since December 19, 67.08, and the day before it was noted at local peaks against the euro and the yuan, 72.44 since December 30 and 9.97 since January 3, respectively.

Since the beginning of the week, the ruble has been supported by the sale of export earnings, which prevailed over the current foreign exchange demand, while the factor of paying interim dividends by a number of oil companies played its part, for which they could increase the supply of currency for rubles for settlements with shareholders.

Further, this was superimposed by speculative positioning in the long ruble after the decision of the Ministry of Finance to resume foreign exchange interventions within the framework of the budget rule, and for the next month – as sales of foreign currency from gold reserves.

From today until February 6, the Central Bank will sell Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange with “tomorrow” settlements, while the total volume of foreign currency allocated for these operations under the budget rule is 54.5 billion rubles, or 3.2 billion daily rubles ($47 million equivalent).

On the outer contour, the dollar’s decline to multi-month lows was formally in favor of the ruble in anticipation of a slowdown in the Fed’s rate hike amid signals of weakening inflation, confirmed the day before by the publication of December data on consumer price dynamics in the US.

Now the dollar is also correcting in Forex, gaining half a percentage point against the euro, being quoted near $1.0790, while in the morning it reached a minimum since April 21, $1.0867.

Despite the current negative intraday dynamics of the Russian currency, it will show growth by the end of the week. Now the ruble is gaining more than 4% against the dollar and more than 2% against the euro and yuan, showing such a significant strengthening for the first time since mid-autumn. (Moscow Bureau)


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