The ruble fell amid low-activity exports, OFZs have mixed dynamics ahead of auctions

MOSCOW, Jan 17 (Reuters) – The ruble accelerated its negative dynamics against the dollar and the euro in the second half of Tuesday, and also went negative against the yuan amid today’s low market activity of exporters – a number of them could complete currency sales on the payment of ruble dividends, while There is still time before the payment of January taxes.

By 17.40 Moscow time, exchange quotes of the dollar / ruble pair with “tomorrow” settlements were close to 68.91, and the ruble is losing 0.7%, having previously noted at a session low of 69.41.

The volume of transactions in this currency pair since 7 am has barely crossed the $1 billion mark.

The euro / ruble pair was at 74.74, and here the ruble is losing 1%, the volume of transactions is 500 million euros.

Paired with the yuan, the ruble is depreciating by 0.2%, quotes are close to 10.17.

Since January of this year, corporations and other taxpayers have been completing settlements with the budget for all taxes by the 28th day of each calendar month, so for now, the impact of the fiscal factor in supporting the ruble may not be noticeable.

Today, there was also not enough real support for the ruble from foreign exchange interventions, and the speculative game around them came to naught.

From last Friday until February 6, the Russian Central Bank has been selling foreign currency from reserves for rubles on the Moscow Exchange as part of the budget rule, and the yuan / ruble pair is used as an instrument with “tomorrow” settlements, for 3.2 billion rubles a day (less than $47 million in equivalent ).

At the same time, the Chinese yuan fell today in Forex, losing almost 0.6% against the dollar in the continental market (6.77) and 0.5% – on the offshore market (6.78) in the evening). Against him played the final data for last year on the worst GDP growth in China in almost 50 years, as well as the growing demand of the Chinese population for foreign currency for overseas travel during the upcoming lunar New Year holidays.

The dollar on the evening of Tuesday again becomes cheaper in relation to major currencies, and also loses its intraday advantage against commodity and developing ones. The dollar index is estimated at 101.95 against yesterday’s last quote, 102.25.

The euro / dollar pair is again near the maximum levels since April last year, now it is quoted at $ 1.0866, and the dollar is losing almost half a percent.

Basic oil grades are growing in the evening, while Brent has reached its maximum since January 3, $86.43, now quotes are near $86.30 (+2.2%).

The risk for the ruble and ruble-denominated assets remains the price ceiling for Russian oil set by the West, as well as a significant current discount to base grades, which implies a weakening of foreign exchange earnings in the Russian Federation.

“In order to maintain high production, Russia is forced to sell its oil at lower prices,” analysts at Bank St. Petersburg say.

In their opinion, the dynamics of the ruble exchange rate in the medium term will largely be determined by the effect of restrictions on the supply of Russian oil products, which are to be introduced by Western countries on February 5.

Spot quotes of the Russian Urals reference oil blend for delivery to the northwestern regions of Europe are now at $52.50 per barrel against $50.60 at Monday’s close.

The market of ruble government debt during Tuesday could not decide on the direction, in the evening the yield showed changes in most securities within -5/+4 basis points.

Market participants are now waiting for tomorrow’s OFZ auctions, at which the Ministry of Finance again decided to do without securities with variable coupon income, which are popular among investors, but will instead offer two classic papers and one inflationary one. (Moscow bureau)


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