PRAGUE, Jan 6 (Reuters) – After a strong start to 2023, Central European currencies are likely to lose ground in the coming months, after which a partial rebound is expected, a Reuters poll showed on Friday.
Emerging markets started 2023 strongly, as factors such as declining gas prices and China’s move away from a strict zero-tolerance policy on COVID-19 helped improve risk appetite.
However, the monthly currency survey, partly conducted before the start of the new year, did not show significant changes in long-term forecasts for the region’s currencies.
Within 12 months, the Czech koruna is expected to fall to 24.50 per euro, 2.1% below Wednesday’s close but near the 24.45 level forecast a month earlier.
According to the survey, the forint should trade at 410 per euro in a year. This is weaker than Wednesday’s close of 394.40 and lower than December’s forecast of 397.27.
Analysts at ING are more positive than other survey participants, believing that the Hungarian currency will hold above the 400 mark as conditions improve this year.
The Polish złoty next year, according to the survey, will strengthen to 4.65 per euro, which is in line with the December forecast, while the Romanian leu will weaken again to 5.02 per euro compared to the December forecast of 5.07.
The original message in English is available at the code: (Jason Howet, translated by Tomasz Kanik)