The number of Russians subject to conscription will increase by more than 2 million people

More than two million Russian citizens will join the ranks of “conscripts” as a result of the expansion of military age limits initiated by the State Duma.

Amendments that scrap the increase in the lower draft limit from 18 to 21 but raise the upper bar from 27 to 30 will increase the number of conscripts by a third, predict demographers

If, according to the old rules, 6.8 million people were drafted in 2024, then according to the new regulations, 9.14 million (+2.34 million). In 2025, if the amendments are adopted, the conscription quota will amount to 9.13 million people, in 2026 – 9.16 million people, in 2027 – 9.28 million people, and by 2030 it will increase to almost 10 million – estimates the researcher of the Institute of Economic Policy. Gaidar Igor Efremov (his conclusions are given by RBC).

The expert emphasizes that these calculations are based on current population statistics and most likely the actual number of recruits is 5-10% less. The discrepancies stem from the 2020 census, which was conducted with numerous violations and added millions of “dead souls” to the population. In addition, the statistics underestimate those who left Russia, fleeing last year’s mobilization (according to Alfa-Bank, up to 1 million people). This also includes migrants who are not subject to conscription, says Efremov.

Independent demographer Alexei Raksha confirms the estimates: at the beginning of 2023, there were 6.7 million men aged 21 to 29 in Russia, citing Rosstat statistics. With the extension of the age bracket to the 18-29 age bracket, the number of registered men officially increases by 2.3 million. However, taking into account the “mistakes” of the census, it will actually be 2.2 million, Raksha points out.

The Defense Committee of the State Duma approved amendments extending the limits of the military age on July 21. Changes were made to the bill, which the lower house of parliament passed on first reading in March. He assumed that both draft age limits would be raised by three years, to 21 and 30 respectively, and that the total number of years that young men could be drafted would remain the same. The head of the Duma Defense Committee, Andrei Kartapolov, explained the rejection of the original idea with numerous appeals from 18-year-old Russians who wanted to serve, who allegedly received deputies.

The State Duma project was opposed by many influential Russian senators. Colonel General Viktor Bondarev, head of the Federation Council’s defense committee, recalled that raising the age limit for conscription to 21-30 was approved by President Vladimir Putin at the Defense Ministry’s college at the end of December last year. These rules should remain in effect, and those wishing to serve from the age of 18 could be given such a right “upon written request to the military registration and conscription office,” he suggested.

Bondarev was supported by Andrei Klishas, ​​head of the Committee on Constitutional Legislation and State Construction of the Federation Council. The general rule is 21 years and 30 years – the age of conscription for military service, – he wrote is on the telegram channel.

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