The euro exchange rate on the Moscow exchange changed the record after the attack on the Crimean bridge

The ruble’s exchange rate began to fall on the Moscow stock exchange on Monday after the night attack on the Crimean bridge, in which the Russian authorities blamed the Ukrainian special services.

The euro exchange rate for settlements “tomorrow” rose to 102.1 rubles, breaking the record since March 2022 and exceeding the previous peak set after the Wagner PMC rebellion at the end of June.

The dollar at the moment rose to 90.93 rubles, but at 10:44 Moscow time it fell to 90.36 and adds only 30 kopecks over Friday.

Reports of the Crimean bridge being attacked for the second time since the beginning of the war, forcing authorities to halt vehicular traffic, could spur currency buying, a major Russian bank dealer told Reuters.

Demand appeared in the “narrow market”, which led to the weakening of the ruble, he adds.

The market is also under pressure from cheaper oil, the dealer continues: the price of Brent has fallen below $80 a barrel, while Russian oil companies are sharply reducing physical exports by 500,000 barrels a day from May levels at the behest of the government.

Since the beginning of the year, the dollar has increased against the ruble by 28% and the euro by more than 30%, making the Russian currency one of the weakest in emerging markets: only the Turkish lira and the Argentine peso have fallen more strongly.

In terms of volatility, the ruble became a world record holder after the Wagner revolt sparked a wave of capital outflow from Russia – about $ 9 billion, according to Yegor Susin, managing director of GPB Private Banking.

Technically and fundamentally, the ruble remains oversold, says Egor Zilnikov, chief analyst at PSB. Monday’s fall in the value of the Russian currency is a consequence of the “geopolitical situation”, while the ruble retains “the potential to strengthen”, he emphasizes.

If the dollar drops below 90 rubles, the next target could be a range of 86-88 rubles, predicts Zilnikov.