Seasonal overhauls at Russian refineries promise to cut diesel exports by 0.55 million tons in April, estimates Reuters

MOSCOW, March 17 (Reuters) – The shutdown in commercial diesel production at Russian refineries will increase by 0.753 million tons in April compared to March, which could lead to a cut in exports by 0.55 million tons, according to Reuters calculations based on data from Eikon terminal and industry sources.

Under the current schedule, shutdowns of diesel hydrotreating and hydrocracking units at Russian refineries will increase to 1.809 million tons in April, up 77% from March (1.056 million tons) on a daily basis.

Decommissioned hydrorefining and hydrocracking capacities reached 17.8% of the total installed capacity of these units in Russian refineries in April, compared to 10.1% in March.

As regards the production of a commercial product, the increase in hydrorefining and hydrocracking capacity withdrawn in April compared to March corresponds to a decrease in the production potential of diesel oil production by 10 ppm by 0.547 million tonnes.

Given the priority of meeting the needs of the domestic market, traders expect that the decrease in production will lead to a corresponding reduction in export supplies.

In 2022, hydrotreatment and hydrocracking shutdowns increased in April compared to March by 0.663 million tons, total production according to Refinitiv decreased in April by 0.510 million tons compared to March, exports decreased by 0.808 million tons, while domestic deliveries remained flat level level.

According to the current overhaul schedule at Russian refineries in the first half of 2023, the largest total volume of decommissioned commercial diesel production capacity is in April – 1.809 million tonnes or 1.507 million tonnes in terms of the target product.

In the annual repair plan, the maximum downtime of diesel processes is in September – 2.375 million tonnes (2.023 million tonnes in commercial diesel oil). Compared to August, the withdrawn hydrorefining and hydrocracking capacities will increase by 1.211 million tonnes, the decrease in production potential in September versus August in terms of the target product will amount to 1.014 million tonnes. In September, 23.4% of the existing hydrorefining and hydrocracking capacity will be inactive, compared to 11.1% in August.

It is expected that the total distribution of hydrorefining and hydrocracking capacity in 2023 will amount to 12.867 million tonnes (11.120 million tonnes in terms of target product yield). In 2022, the actual unused production capacity of these processes amounted to 13.884 million tonnes (12.217 million tonnes per product).

The existing capacities of diesel oil fraction hydrotreatment and hydrocracking in the refineries of the Russian Federation potentially allow the production of approximately 100 million tons of commercial diesel oil per year.

In January-December 2022, Russian refineries, according to Refinitiv, produced 85.165 million tons of diesel, of which 50.160 million tons went to the domestic market and 34.919 million tons for export.

Detailed data on decommissioned pre-treatment capacity, diesel hydrotreatment and vacuum diesel hydrocracking in 2023, as well as commercial diesel production at Russian refineries, deliveries to the domestic market and for export in 2022 are available at the link –