Russia to cut oil exports from Western ports by 6% in June/May – sources, Reuters calculations

MOSCOW, May 25 (Reuters) – Russia will cut oil exports and transit from its western ports by 6% a day in June compared to May as voluntary production cuts are combined with increased refinery utilization after seasonal overhauls, industry sources data and Reuters calculations .

According to sources, shipments of Ural and KEBCO grades from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga are expected in June in the amount of 6.5 million tons, compared to 7.5 million tons planned for May.

In Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, 2.9 million tons of Urals, Siberian Light and KEBCO oil are to be transshipped in June, compared to 2.8 million tons in May.

Traders believe that in May the reduction in oil production in the Russian Federation will approach the announced 0.5 million barrels per day and will stabilize around this level by the end of the month, while the processing of raw materials at Russian refineries will increase against the backdrop of a seasonal increase in gasoline demand after the peak spring repairs.

In early February, the Russian authorities announced a voluntary reduction in oil production, and in April it turned out that by the end of 2023, Moscow would reduce the extraction of raw materials by 500,000 tonnes. barrels per day compared to February levels. In May, Russian authorities reported that production had already reached the planned level.

According to sources and preliminary estimates from the Reuters agency, in June the volume of withdrawn primary capacity of refineries in the Russian Federation and Belarus may decrease by about 1.1 million tons compared to May.

At the same time, fears of a gasoline shortage on the Russian market will stimulate an increase in oil refining, which will reduce the resources available for export.

The government of the Russian Federation is considering the possibility of banning the export of gasoline in order to prevent shortages of the product and an increase in its prices as a result of the expected from July.