Ruble is quoted in slight plus with low exchange activity in the evening

MOSCOW, Jan 23 (Reuters) – The ruble edged marginally higher on Monday evening as oil prices, including Russian crude, edged up to multi-week highs on hopes of increased sales of export earnings before CBR intervention and tax . market activity.

By 17.40 Moscow time, the share quotes of the dollar/ruble pair were close to 68.72, and the ruble was gaining 0.2%.

Since the beginning of the day, the pair has formed a narrow trading range of 68.47-68.86, with a transaction volume of only $620 million.

Against the euro, the ruble is gaining less than 0.1% (74.55), while earlier today the single currency was worth more than 75 rubles, taking into account its growth in foreign exchange.

Paired with the yuan, the ruble is growing by 0.1%, quotes are close to 10.11. The yuan trades during the New Year holiday in mainland China, which will last throughout the current week.

From last Friday until February 6, the Russian Central Bank has been selling Chinese yuan for rubles from reserves as part of the budget rule, up to 3.2 billion rubles (about $47 million equivalent) a day, as support for the Russian currency. works.

Russian exporters this week may increase foreign currency sales for rubles to account for upcoming tax payments, while from the beginning of 2023, almost all taxes, fees and insurance premiums to the corporation, as well as to other taxpayers, are to be paid in a single tax payment. Is. (This month – January 30).

According to Bogdan Zvarich from, sales of foreign currency by exporters at the peak of tax payments may strengthen the ruble to 68 per dollar, with subsequent attempts to move to the range of 65-68.

Basic grade oil climbed again on Monday, with a barrel of Brent now valued at $88.42 (+0.9%), having reached its highest price since December 1 last year at $87.66.

Spot quotations of the Russian reference oil blend Ural for delivery to the northwestern regions of Europe are now $55.80 a barrel for delivery to Mediterranean ports – approx $60.75 ,

The significant current Ural discount for base oil grades, along with the Western price cap for oil from the Russian Federation and upcoming sanctions on Russian oil products, is a key factor putting pressure on the ruble exchange rate, as it reduces volumes domestically. foreign exchange earnings in the market.

At the same time, Raiffeisenbank analysts believe that from the middle of the year the situation with Russian oil and gas exports may improve, including against the background of a reduction in the Ural-Brent discount; The Ministry of Finance will again start receiving additional income and will be able to return to currency purchases at least in the second half of the year.

Freedom Finance Global’s Vladimir Chernov noted that Russian oil’s discount to Brent is now narrowing amid reports that the Energy Ministry is preparing a bill for Russian oil companies to prevent them from reselling Russian oil to counterparties. can be controlled. price range.

Today in foreign markets the euro, together with the dollar, rose for the first time in nine months to $1.0926, but by the evening it lost its gains, and the current quotes are already lower than the previous close at $1.0847 – rehabilitation of the dollar This was done against the backdrop of rising yields on US government securities.

Forex today played together with expectations of an ECB rate hike of half a percentage point and further tightening of policy at next meetings, while the Fed is expected to hike rates by only a quarter percentage point in February. point.

At the same time, the futures market is already setting hopes for a possible reduction in the dollar rate in the second half of the year, taking into account signs of a US cooling off, as well as a reduction in inflationary pressures in the US. consumer market and housing market. (Moscow Bureau)

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