Ruble holds another sluggish auction, not swayed by upcoming tax payments

MOSCOW, Jan 27 (Reuters) – The ruble on Friday kept another sluggish exchange trade in a narrow range for a boring current week, with relatively little activity from market participants and negligible exchange volumes. A slightly noticeable increase in exporters’ activity in selling proceeds at the peak of tax payments Weak, but stable local foreign exchange demand, may have been caused by a number of factors.

By 16.40 Moscow time, exchange quotes of the dollar / ruble pair with the calculation “yesterday” were close to 69.44, the ruble was losing a quarter of a percent. Since the start of trading, a trading range of 69.20-69.50 has been formed, with the trading volume barely exceeding $1 billion.

The EUR/RUBLE pair was at 75.43, here the ruble shows zero dynamics for the previous close.

Paired with the yuan, the ruble rose 0.1% to 10.27, having previously strengthened to a session peak of 10.235.

According to the new rules, on Monday, January 30 (the date was postponed from January 28 due to the weekend), Russian commodity corporations will pay almost all taxes, duties and insurance premiums in a single tax payment.

However, this factor did not lead to a significant increase in sales of foreign exchange earnings for rubles, which may be due to both the low current cost of ruble resources and the desire of exporters to wait for a more favorable nominal exchange rate for sales, Although the time is already “on the fly”.

According to Yuri Popov of SberCIB, the total amount of MET and income tax included in a single payment may amount to 0.6-0.7 trillion rubles.

According to Reuters calculations, the December MET for oil paid on Monday could be around 0.41 trillion rubles against the previous value of 0.48 trillion.

Foreign exchange intervention is also a formal support for the ruble. The CBR now sells Chinese yuan for 3.2 billion rubles (equivalent to about $47 million) from its reserves on a daily basis in “yesterday” settlements under the budget rule.

This counteracted forex demand, which in the last week, according to market participants, was driven by a tense foreign policy backdrop as well as repayment of corporate foreign currency loans and repayment of OFZ-26211 by the Ministry of External Affairs. finance.

Tonight, the position in the risk-free asset may also be added for the weekend keeping in mind the difficult geopolitics, which may worsen the dynamics of the Russian currency.

“The United States and Japan have imposed new sanctions against the Russian Federation, and the European Union is considering the possibility of setting a price cap on Russian oil products before banning its supplies on February 5,” from Wallace Capital Elena Kozhukhova called the reason for the lack of a significant reaction of the ruble to the upcoming peak in tax payments.

Western price cap for Russian oil and upcoming sanctions on oil products from the Russian Federation, as well as Brent <बीएफओ-यूआरएल-एनडब्ल्यूई> Important for the current Ural discount is the main current negative factor for the ruble, since all this together leads to a material decrease in the country’s foreign exchange earnings.

Today, base oil grades are rising, and Russian oil is lagging behind.

North Sea Brent blend edged up more than one percent to an estimated $88.42 a barrel.

Spot quotations for Russian Ural blend for delivery to Europe’s northwestern regions are at $55.27 a barrel, and by Thursday’s close they are at $54.35. Were on

The dollar is now up 0.2% ($1.0870) against the euro, estimated at 101.94 against a basket of six major currencies, up on support from strong US data against 101.73 at the previous close. has been transferred. It hit multi-month lows a day earlier.

At the same time, market activity may weaken ahead of the Fed, ECB and Bank of England meetings next week. (Moscow Bureau)