Ruble fails to grow as expected but without support for exports

MOSCOW, Jan 25 (Reuters) – The ruble sank back into the red on Wednesday evening after failed growth efforts, and again lack of full selling of export foreign currency, CBR intervention and short-term speculative positions long ruble. Earnings for the upcoming single tax payment at the end of the month.

The deteriorating geo-political background can also play its negative role.

If Russian exporters still increase real sales of foreign currency, the ruble has a chance to show growth in the rest of January, which is expected by most of the participants in the local market, but for now they are waiting for their unfinished business. Long are forced to close the ruble. positions on a daily basis in the hope of offering a powerful corporate currency, and to recruit again in the morning.

By 17.50 Moscow time, the exchange quotes of the dollar / ruble pair with the calculation “tomorrow” were close to 69.20, and the ruble is losing 0.3%, having previously risen in price to 68.78.

The euro/ruble pair was at 74.97, here the ruble also lost more or less significant intraday gains, having now declined by 0.1%.

Paired with the yuan, the ruble is entrenched in the red and is losing three quarters of a percent, quotes are close to 10.21 – CBR intervention in the Chinese currency may more than cover local demand from importers.

From 13 January to 6 February, the Russian Central Bank revalued the Chinese yuan by 3.2 billion rubles (about $47 million equivalent) a day under the “yesterday” budget rule, and for the New Year holidays in China. Because China sells Yuan. The volume of these operations conducted from January 20 to January 27 will be reflected in the accumulated total at the beginning of next week.

Now almost all taxes, fees and insurance premiums are paid, along with other taxpayers, in a single tax payment on the 28th of each month, and due to the weekend this January – on January 30, so the next three days can be if Support for the ruble becomes significant when exporters begin to consolidate ruble liquidity by selling foreign currency.

Against this, the factor of reduction in the flow of foreign exchange earnings to the country continues to play, taking into account the Western price cap for Russian oil and the upcoming sanctions on petroleum products from the Russian Federation. Brent For still significant current Ural discount.

The spot price of Russian Ural reference oil blend now $53.20 a barrel for delivery to the northwestern regions of Europe are on

The current quotation of Front Futures for North Sea Mixture is near $86.05, which is slightly lower than the previous close.

At the forex, the dollar showed mixed dynamics against the euro during the day, it is now down 0.1%, the quote is at $ 1.0895. Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar is valued at 101.79 against the previous close of 101.94. . Staying near multi-month lows.

In the global currency market, quotes are now being influenced by expectations regarding world central banks – how they will deal with inflationary pressures, which are now quite volatile. In particular, investors expect the Fed to slow down the pace of dollar rate growth with a possible reversal of monetary policy in the second half of the year, and the ECB to maintain an aggressive stance at the next meetings. (Moscow Bureau)

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