Rosstat recorded a drop in Russia’s birth rate to its lowest level since 1999

The birth rate in Russia continues to fall, despite the authorities’ appeals for family values ​​and the national project “Demography” worth 4 trillion rubles. According to the results of January-May, 511.7 thousand children were born in the Russian Federation. children, Rosstat reported in operational statistics.

Compared to the same period last year, which was the worst birth rate in the country for over 20 years, the number of births decreased by another 11.5 thousand, i.e. by 1.2%.

The relative birth rate – 8.5 children per 1,000 people – became the second worst in the country’s modern history. It fell below this indicator only in 1999 – 8.3 children per 1000 people.

The death rate, according to Rosstat, also decreased – by 14.5%: to 748:4 thousand. People in January-May. However, this was not enough to compensate for the decline in natural increase, which turned out to be 1.5 times lower than the number of registered deaths.

As a result: over the five months of 2023, Russia lost another 236.7 thousand. people as a result of a natural population decline, almost 600,000 each. people last year and 2.9 million cumulatively over the last five years.

In May, Rosstat recorded an increase in the number of children born – by 1.3% year on year, to 104.5 thousand. However, this happened only because there were two more working days in May 2023 than in the same month a year earlier, points out demographer Alexei Raksha.

In June, according to registry offices, there were 103,000. births, or 8 percent. less than a year earlier. At the end of the first half of the year, according to Raksza’s estimates, the number of births fell by 3% to 615,000.

Russia’s birth rate has been declining steadily since the annexation of Crimea and has fallen by almost a third since: 1.942 million in 2014, 1.94 million in 2015, 1.888 million in 2016, 1.69 million in 2017 ., 1.604 million in 2018, 1.481 million in 2019, 1.436 million in 2020, 1.398 million in 2021, 1.304 million in 2022.

Keep in mind that the number of women of childbearing age is declining by 3% a year as a result of the ’90s echoes, notes Raksha.

Nevertheless, the mobilization and death of tens of thousands of men in war will inevitably bring about a deterioration of the demographic situation – the number of childbirths will decrease by another 5-10% and will be the lowest since the beginning of the 19th century. age, thinks demograph.

“At the beginning. ”, predicts Raksha.

Demographically, Russia is “in a very difficult situation”, said the president’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, in May. “Demography is where we haven’t succeeded yet,” he admitted. According to Peskov, the authorities have taken a number of measures to “encourage the population to increase the birth rate”, but so far “they have not produced the desired result.”