Gasoline damper in Russia to drop by 20% in May/April, diesel by 35% – Reuters calculations

MOSCOW, May 19 (Reuters) – A damper surcharge on gasoline under the wholesale price stabilization mechanism in the Russian Federation’s domestic market in May could fall by 20% from April to 12,460 rubles a tonne, a muffler for diesel will decrease by 35% to 9,190 rubles per tonne – the lowest value since December 2021, according to preliminary calculations by Reuters. State subsidies for oil refineries for the supply of motor gasoline and diesel oil to the Russian market will decrease in May as a result of a drop in the world prices of motor gasoline by 5.5% and diesel by 8.4% compared to April. At the same time, the reduction of the Urals discount to the North Sea Dated Argus quotation to USD 166.5/t from USD 182.5 in April, taken into account in the fuel subsidy formula, will slightly support the suppression of gasoline in May. Counting with the maximum discount of USD 182.5 per ton, the May gasoline shock absorber would be lower by 1,000 rubles and would amount to 11,420 rubles per ton. The calculation, based on the average values ​​of the relevant world quotations and the ruble exchange rate for the period from May 1 to May 19, with the extrapolation of the last values ​​until the end of the month, gives the preliminary value of the May shock absorber for gasoline in the amount of 12,456 rubles per ton – by 3,088 rubles (-19, 9%) lower than in April; for diesel – 9.188 rubles per ton, which is 4.941 rubles (-35.0%) less than in April. Based on the estimated volume of deliveries to the domestic market in May of gasoline and diesel oil in the amount of approximately 3.1 million tonnes and 4.3 million tonnes, respectively, the total amount of tax compensation for oil refineries for May deliveries of fuel to Russian customers may decrease by 27 .5 billion compared to April to 78.5 billion rubles. The state applies a suppressive surcharge to the oil excise duty to compensate oil companies for the price difference with export parity and to prevent sharp fluctuations in fuel prices in the domestic market. Below are the actual values ​​for calculating the shock absorber for gasoline and diesel in January-May 2023 and in 2022: Product / Quotation, Customs, Rub/$ Excise rate, Nominal price Export shock absorber, period $/t $/t RUB/t domestic alternative , rub/t market, rub/t rub/t PETROL 2023 January 813 5.0 69.2325 14.345 56.900 69.637 8.661 February 805 3.8 73.0284 14.345 56.900 71.828 10.151 Mar 79 2 4.2 76.0852 14.345 56.900 72.525 10.625 April 866 4.2 80.8947 14.345 56.900 79.759 15.544 May* 818 4.3 78.9521 14.345 56.900 75.218 12.456 2022 January 790 14.0 75 , 8837 13.793 55.200 85.120 20.346 February 888 14.3 77.4048 13.793 55.200 95.384 27.325 March 1.061 17.4 104.0810 13.793 55.200 142.398 59.295 April 1.047 18.3 77.9146 13.793 55.200 10 9.554 36.961 May 1.246 14.8 64.7770 13.793 55.200 109.069 36.631 June 1.356 13.4 57.2694 13.793 55.200 105.727 34.358 July August 929 15.9 60.3522 13.793 55.200 79.204 16. 323 September 822 15.6 59.8006 13.793 55.200 60.487 3.595 October 925 13.3 60.9064 13.793 55.200 69.010 9.391 November 852 12.8 60.8781 13.793 55. 200 61.314 4.158 December 706 12.9 65.4395 13.793 55.200 48.135 -4.804 DIESEL 2023 January 944 5.0 69.2325 9.938 53.850 87.444 21.836 February 83 1 3.8 73.0284 9.938 53.850 8 1.700 18.103 March 809 April 766 4.2 80.8947 9.938 53.850 75.587 14.129 May* 702 4.3 78.9521 9.938 53.850 67.9 85 9.188 2022 January 756 14.0 7 5.8837 9.556 52.250 77, 031 16.108 February 839 14.3 77.4048 9.556 52.250 85.841 21.834 March 1.166 17.4 104.0810 9.556 52.250 150.553 63.897 April 1.119 18.3 77.9146 9.556 52 .250 111.201 38.318 May 1.127 14.8 64.7770 9 .556 52.250 94.734 27.615 June 1.333 13.4 57.2694 9.556 52.250 98.993 30.383 July December 1888 12.9 65.43 95 9.556 52.250 74.37 6 14.382 * – preliminary calculation