Damper for gasoline in Russia will increase by 51% in July / June, for diesel

MOSCOW, July 21 (Reuters) – The suppression surcharge on motor gasoline under the wholesale price stabilization mechanism in the domestic market of the Russian Federation in July may increase by 51% compared to June to 25.5 thousand. The July gasoline muffler will be the largest since June 2022. The expected increase in the size of the state subsidy for oil refineries for the supply of motor gasoline and diesel fuel to the Russian market in July will occur as a result of the depreciation of the ruble against the US dollar by 8.2% compared to June, an increase in world quotations of motor gasoline by 4.9%, diesel – by 6.1%, and a decrease in the Urals discount to the North Sea. 119 per ton from $143 per ton. The calculation, based on the average values ​​of the relevant world quotations and the ruble exchange rate for the period from July 1 to July 20, with extrapolation of the last values ​​until the end of the month, gives the preliminary value of the July silencer for motor gasolines in the amount of RUB 25,474 per tonne, i.e. RUB 8,590 (+50.9%) higher than in June; for diesel fuel – 20,096 rubles per ton, which is 6,728 rubles (+50.3%) more than the value of the previous month. Based on the estimated volume of deliveries to the domestic market of the Russian Federation in the summer months of gasoline and diesel fuel in the amount of approximately 3.2 million tons and 4.7 million tons, respectively, the total amount of tax compensation to oil refineries for July deliveries of fuels to consumers in the Russian Federation may increase by 59 billion rubles compared to June to 175 billion rubles. Refineries will be able to receive accruals for the July muffler in August. At the moment, the possibility of depriving the refinery of compensation payments for July is not ruled out, as the average price of AI-92 gasoline, which has been growing sharply since the beginning of April, this month may be higher than the maximum indicative level established by the Tax Code. The shock absorber will be reset if the average monthly market wholesale price of AI-92 exceeds 62,590 rubles per ton. In this case, all refineries lose both gasoline and diesel shock absorbers in the accounting period under consideration. In the period from July 1 to July 21, the average price of AI-92 amounted to 60,316 rubles per ton, the average price of AI-92 in the European part of the Russian Federation, after the stock exchange results of July 21, reached the level of 64,522 rubles per ton. The state applies a dampening surcharge to the petroleum excise duty to compensate the oil industry for the price difference with export parity and to prevent sharp fluctuations in the cost of fuel in the domestic market. Below are the actual values ​​used to calculate the silencer for motor gasoline and diesel in the period January-July 2023 and January-December 2022: Product / period Quotation, $/t Customs, $/t Exchange rate RUB/$ Excise, RUB/t Nominal price Export shock absorber, RUB/t domestic alternative, market, RUB/t RUB/t ENGINE PETROL 2023 January 813 5 69, 232 5 14.345 56.900 69.637 8.661 February 805 3.8 73.0284 14.345 56.900 71.828 10.151 March 792 4.2 76.0852 14.345 56.900 72.525 10.62 April 5 866 4.2 80.8947 14.345 56.900 79.759 15.544 May 810 4.3 78.9516 14.345 56.900 76.309 13.198 June 819 4.8 83.1614 14.345 56.9 00 81.72 9 16.884 JULY 859 4.6 90.5441 14.345 56.900 94.362 25.474 * 2022 January 790 14 75.8837 13.793 55.200 85.120 20.3 February 46 888 1 4.3 77.404 8 13.793 55.200 95.384 27.325 March 1.061 17.4 104.081 13.793 55.200 142.398 59.295 April 1.047 18.3 77.914 6 13.793 55 July 1, 101 16.5 58.1515 13.793 55.200 88.811 22.855 August 929 15.9 60.3522 13.793 55.200 79.204 16.323 September 822 15.6 59.8006 December 706 12.9 65.4395 13.793 55.20 0 48.135 -4.804 DIESEL 2023 January 944 5 69.2325 9.938 53.850 87.444 21.836 February 831 3.8 73.0284 9 .938 53.850 81.70 0 18.103 March 809 4.2 7 6.0852 9.938 53.850 82.301 18.493 April 766 4.2 80.8947 9.938 53.850 75.587 14.129 May 690 June 726 4.8 83.1614 9.938 53.850 74.416 13. 368 JUL* 770 4.6 90.5441 9.938 53.850 84.76 7 20.096 2022 January 756 14 75.8837 9.556 52.250 77.031 16.108 February 839 14.3 77.4048 9.556 52.250 85.841 21.834 March 1.166 17.4 10 4.081 9.556 52.250 150.553 63.897 April 1.119 18.3 77.9146 9.55 July 1, 095 16.5 58.1515 9.556 52.250 83 0.238 20.142 August 1.023 15.9 60, 3522 9.556 52.250 80.928 18.641 September 1.005 15.6 59.8006 9.556 5 December 888 12 .9 65.4395 9.556 52.250 74.376 14.382 * – preliminary calculation