While Rosstat reports on the reduction of poverty in Russia and fixes the growth of real wages, Russian businesses largely complain about the lack of money in consumers’ wallets.
A survey conducted jointly by PSB, Opora Rossii and Magram Market Research shows that 50% of Russian companies name a decline in the population’s effective demand as a key factor affecting their work in 2022.
38% of respondents complained about “difficulties with foreign economic activities”, almost all large state-owned banks fell under sanctions and lost access to settlements in dollars and euros.
According to the study, one in four businesses (23%) suffered “the loss of significant customers and contracts”. Almost the same number (24%) cited the “volatility” of exchange rates as a pressure factor, which jumped to record highs in the first weeks of the war, and then, conversely, fell to their lowest levels since 2015. but fell.
“A significant proportion of surveyed businessmen also noted high taxes and unreliability of suppliers,” say PSB analysts, “but the majority cited lack of effective demand as the main problem.
According to Rosstat, according to the results of the third quarter, the real disposable income of Russian citizens decreased by 3.4%, and the poorest became the only group whose income grew faster than inflation. At the same time, according to official figures, the number of people living below the poverty line decreased by 700,000 people.
The income picture of Russians is distorted by mobilization and payments to the army – without them, the decline in real incomes would reach 5%, estimates Evgeny Nadorshin, an economist at PF-Capital. The decline in domestic consumption, according to their forecast, will not be less than that of 2015–2016 in both duration and scale, and will eventually drop it to 2010–2013 levels.